June 11 (Reuters) – The U.S. midterm elections in November are projected to cost $11.6 billion, a record for political advertising in any electoral cycle, fueled in part by surging spending in Senate races in Ohio, Texas and Maine, according to ad tracking firm AdImpact.
AdImpact’s projection, released on Thursday, would exceed the record $11.2 billion spent in the 2024 presidential cycle and the $8.9 billion spent in the 2022 midterms and is higher than the $10.8 billion it estimated in September.
Republicans are defending slim majorities in both the House of Representatives and Senate amid high living costs and low approval ratings for President Donald Trump. Democrats are favored to retake the House but face much steeper odds in the Senate. Spending is expected to focus on the few races that are truly competitive and could decide control of Congress.
AdImpact said its projection for record spending was mainly due to an expected surge in advertising for competitive Senate and gubernatorial races in Ohio, Alaska and Iowa, along with closely contested Senate races in Texas and Maine.
In Ohio, where Democrat Sherrod Brown is facing Republican Senator Jon Husted and the race for governor is competitive, spending is now expected to reach $749 million, an increase of $309 million from the prior forecast, AdImpact said.
The next largest increases were in Texas, where projected spending rose by $288 million to $850 million, and in Maine, where advertising outlays are now expected to total $491 million, up by $185 million, according to AdImpact.
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton ousted four-term U.S. Senator John Cornyn last month in a costly Republican primary and now faces Democratic state Representative James Talarico in what could become one of the most expensive races in history.
In Maine, Democratic newcomer Graham Platner, who has faced scrutiny over online posts, a Nazi-linked tattoo and allegations of sending explicit texts to women, is expected to challenge incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins in what is also likely to be a costly race.
(Reporting by Nathan Layne in Wilton, Connecticut, Editing by Ross Colvin and Andrea Ricci)
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