By Indradip Ghosh
BENGALURU, March 12 (Reuters) – The U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates for the first time this year in June, according to economists polled by Reuters who are clinging to their views despite the risk that disruption of energy markets resulting from the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran boosts already-elevated inflation.
An around 40% surge in global oil prices has already upped the rate-sensitive two-year Treasury note yield by nearly 30 basis points and interest rate futures pricing has moved to September for the year’s first rate cut. They have priced out the likelihood of a second one.
With inflation already well above the Fed’s 2% target before the war began on the last day of February, and an unexpected 92,000-drop in nonfarm payrolls last month, all 96 economists in the March 6-12 poll see the Fed holding at 3.50%-3.75% on March 18.
Slightly under three-quarters expected that outcome in last month’s survey.
Around two-thirds of economists, 63 of 96, expected the Fed to lower rates to a 3.25%-3.50% range next quarter, most likely in June, right after chair Jerome Powell’s term ends in May.
U.S. President Donald Trump, who has nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair, has repeatedly attacked Powell for not cutting faster.
“It’s clear enough what Warsh has convinced the president he’s going to try to do, and we have to factor that into our forecasts…But then it’s a question of whether the committee dynamic and the data allow him to execute on that or not,” said Jeremy Schwartz, a senior U.S. economist at Nomura.
“He can probably get one or two cuts this year.”
“The conflict with Iran is boosting global energy prices. That’s going to lead to some headline inflation, but potentially also some pass-through into some core inflation components. Meanwhile, the underlying trend in the labor market is not strong, but it doesn’t seem to be deteriorating either and that’s a situation where the Fed isn’t really forced into a kind of more reactive posture.”
There was no consensus among economists on where rates would end the year, although poll medians showed two rate cuts before the November mid-term elections.
Nearly 40% of economists expect just the one rate reduction or none this year, almost double the share predicting three or more.
The change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index – the Fed’s preferred inflation measure – is expected to average 2.8% in the first half of this year and 2.7% for 2026, a slight uptick from last month, poll medians showed.
“Inflation has not been at the 2% objective in five years. If anything, inflation is set to move higher in the near term…Right now the inflation risk is greater than the labor market risk,” said Gus Faucher, chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group.
The unemployment rate, currently 4.4%, is expected to remain steady this year.
A near 80% majority of economists, 29 of 37, who responded to an extra question said it was more likely the Fed holds rates longer than they expect rather than cuts quicker.
“We are just recovering from the supply shock caused by the tariffs and now we have another in the form of the war with Iran. Under Powell, that means they’re just sitting on their hands and waiting for data to come in,” said Philip Marey, senior U.S. strategist at Rabobank.
“The risk to our outlook is more towards fewer and possibly later cuts…but Trump would really like the cuts before the mid-terms rather than after.”
Resilient growth prospects also argue against the need for policy support. The economy is expected to expand 2.1%-2.5% per quarter this year, faster than last quarter’s 1.4% and above the Fed’s estimated non-inflationary rate of 1.8%.
(Other stories from the Reuters global economic poll)
(Reporting by Indradip Ghosh; Polling and analysis by Aman Kumar Soni and Mumal Rathore; Editing by Ross Finley)
Comments