By Indradip Ghosh
BENGALURU, Feb 12 (Reuters) – The European Central Bank will keep its deposit rate at 2.00% at least through the end of this year, a Reuters poll showed, extending its longest spell of steady borrowing costs since the negative-rate era despite heightened geopolitical risks.
Inflation fell to a 16-month low of 1.7% in January, prompting some policymakers to warn price growth could slow too much and that the ECB must be ready to act. Even so, the economy has remained resilient.
Economists in the February 9-12 poll broadly kept their long-held expectations of steady rates, near-target inflation and stable growth.
The ECB, which left rates unchanged for a fifth straight meeting last week, is expected to stay on hold until at least 2027, according to 66 of 74 forecasters, an outlook unchanged since October.
If realised, that would mark the longest run of unchanged rates since the pandemic, when the near-decade stretch of negative rates was in its final stages. Record inflation later forced the ECB to lift rates quickly.
“The ECB is now in a sort of textbook perfect situation for a central bank …. It’s also very clear over the next six months, the ECB is either staying at 2% or cutting,” said Claus Vistesen, chief euro zone economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
The euro zone economy, which expanded 0.3% in the final quarter of 2025, is expected to grow at a similar pace through 2026, with a slight pickup later in the year.
It is forecast to grow 1.2% this year and 1.4% in 2027 after last year’s 1.5% rise, an outlook steady since August and partly supported by optimism around infrastructure spending.
Inflation, which the ECB targets at 2%, is expected to average 1.7% this quarter, rise to 1.9% next quarter, and hover around that level through 2026, the survey showed. It is forecast to average 1.8% this year and 2.0% next, views broadly unchanged since March last year.
“Our baseline assumes the domestic resilience will dominate the external vulnerabilities and the ECB will be able to stay on hold. But it’s fair to say that uncertainty around the path of monetary policy is high,” Deutsche Bank economists said.
Some say a stronger euro could add disinflationary pressure. But in trade-weighted terms, which the ECB watches more carefully, the currency is not flashing warning signs.
After falling around 1.6% from its recent peak above $1.20, the euro is expected to regain those losses over the coming year, a separate Reuters poll found.
(Other stories from the Reuters global economic poll)
(Reporting by Indradip Ghosh; Polling by Anant Chandak and Debrah Gomes; Analysis by Renusri K; Editing by Ross Finley and Mark Potter)
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